Crime locations since Donald Trump’s August 11 announcement
Tuesday September 2, 2025
When President Donald Trump announced a federal crackdown on crime in the District on Aug. 11, 2025, his supporters quickly pointed to the city’s open-data crime figures as evidence that the initiative was paying off. But the numbers also provide ample room for his opponents to push back, underscoring the political tug-of-war over how to interpret crime statistics.
For Trump’s allies, the trends since Aug. 11 are encouraging. Weekly violent crime totals — homicides, assaults with dangerous weapons, robberies, and sex abuse — have dropped below their yearly average of roughly 50 incidents per week. A statistical test shows the reduction is significant compared with the first half of the year, giving them a concrete data point to highlight. Supporters frame these results as proof that the presence of federal resources and tougher enforcement are beginning to restore order in the nation’s capital.
Critics, however, see the picture differently. They note that violent crimes actually rose slightly in the week ending Sept. 1 compared with the week ending Aug. 11 and is trending upward. When comparing violent crime totals over the four- to eight-week period before Aug. 11, the decline is not considered statistically significant. Opponents also argue that violent crime began trending downward in late July, weeks before the federal intervention, and now appears to be trending in the opposite direction, suggesting the policy may not be effective long term.
Digging Deeper:
By the numbers, the bulk of crimes in the District of Columbia are non-violent property crimes, such as thefts, thefts from autos, and motor vehicle thefts. These offenses shape much of the city’s day-to-day public safety picture, and here, too, the trends offer competing narratives.
On one hand, motor vehicle thefts and thefts from auto both hit their lowest weekly totals of 2025 in the week ending Sept. 1, while overall thefts are declining from a midsummer spike. For supporters, these are tangible outcomes that reinforce Trump’s message that tougher enforcement works and that federal involvement can deliver measurable improvements.
On the other hand, opponents emphasize that the overall reduction in non-violent crime is modest and well within the range of normal fluctuations seen throughout the year. While theft from auto and car theft are at their yearly lows, other property crimes remain above their 2025 troughs, leaving room for skepticism about whether a true turnaround is underway.
Supporters’ View
- Violent crime totals have fallen below the 2025 weekly average (~50 incidents).
- A statistical test shows the drop is significant compared with the first half of the year.
- Motor vehicle thefts and thefts from autos reached their lowest weekly totals of 2025 in the week ending Sept. 1.
- Overall thefts are trending down after a midsummer spike.
- Federal intervention is framed as a direct cause of these declines.
Critics’ View
- Violent crime rose slightly in the week ending Sept. 1 compared with the week ending Aug. 11.
- Compared with the 4–8 weeks before Aug. 11, the decline in violent crime is not statistically significant.
- Violent crime began trending down in late July, before the crackdown, suggesting the initiative may not be the driver.
- Reductions in property crime are modest and fit within normal year-to-date fluctuations.
- Several categories of property crime remain above their 2025 lows, limiting claims of broad progress.
The Bottom Line
Beyond the raw numbers, both sides understand the symbolic stakes. The District has long been a flashpoint in the national debate over crime, policing, and governance, and Trump’s decision to send in federal resources drew sharp political reactions from the start. For supporters, the latest data provides a ready-made talking point to argue that Washington is safer with federal backing. For opponents, the same data can be used to argue the policy’s effects are overstated or misattributed.
The same statistics can support both narratives. On one hand, D.C. crime data since Aug. 11 shows fewer violent incidents compared with much of 2025, along with fresh lows in certain property crime categories. On the other, the week-to-week picture is uneven, the broader context suggests the decline is not statistically significant, and any improvement may have predated the crackdown.
data source: DC Open Crime Data
visuals: DC Crime Cards, ChatGPT
